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Forecast

June 24 - 1500 UTC

6/24/2019

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FORECASTER: Charlie Hébert-Pinard
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Again, it's really similar to yesterday. Low pressure and upper low over the MB/SK border and a small low pressure over the Pacific on BC coast. Nothing that will affect us today. In our studied area, there's a surface trough south of Calgary and the 250mb jet will help lifting. The RH is reasonably high for BC and AB. All these conditions will allow convection and some sub-severe thunderstorm to develop.
NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (0000 MDT) - 0.1mm of rain at 6 and 10 pm, small amount during the night and tomorrow evening. The temperatures should be around 15 C and the CAPE pretty low.
NAM - No precipitation
FORTRESS
GEM 2.5 (0000 MDT) - 1.1 mm of rain from 5 to 7 pm, temperatures between 5 and 10 C and a low CAPE. We might have some more rain tomorrow afternoon.
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June 23 - 1500 UTC

6/23/2019

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FORECASTER: Juris Almonte
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Similar to yesterday's forecast, no major system is affecting the SPADE region today. However there is potential for convective storms over the foothills today. The surface charts (1200 UTC) show a low pressure system (1000 hPa) midway up the over the border of SK and MB. A strong high pressure system (1032 hPa) on the coast of the US Pacific northwest and a weak low pressure system (1013 hPa) over northern BC. 
NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (0000 MDT) - 3.5 mm of rain expected at Nipika from 11 AM - 7 PM with a 3 h break from 3-5 PM. Highs of ~19°C to be expected this afternoon. CAPE values of ~500 J/kg. 

GEM 10 (0000 MDT) - Similar to high-res model, but with increased precipitation (6.6 mm) from 1300-1700 MDT.

GEM 25 ( June 22 - 1800 MDT) - Long range suggests precipitation throughout the week, but nothing substantial till Thursday. 

HRRR (0700 MDT) & RAP (0700 MDT) - Both models show about 5 mm of rain from late morning to 1800-2000 MDT 


FORTRESS
GEM 2.5 (0000 MDT) - About 4.4 mm of rain and 1.3 cm of snow is expected beginning at noon (MDT) and ending at 2100 MDT with a high of ~11°C, westerly winds and CAPE values of ~500 J/kg. With the warm temperatures, snow was forecasted likely due to evaporative cooling from the high precipitation intensity expected the hour prior and the dry conditions. 

GEM 10 (0000 MDT) - Similar the the high-res model, except with more precipitation starting again in the early hours of the 24th from 0100-0400 MDT. 

GEM 25 (June 22 - 1800 MDT) - Long range suggests precipitation throughout much of next week, though nothing substantial until perhaps Thursday.

HRRR (0600 MDT), RAP (0700 MDT)  - HRRR showing precipitation beginning as early as 0900 MDT and ending at 1700 MDT. RAP showing more precipitation than HRRR, with 10.3 mm of rain expected, starting 11 AM MDT to 7 PM MDT.

NAM (0000 MDT) - showing precipitation from 9AM to 10 PM tonight  




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Weather forecast – 14 UTC 22 June 2019

6/22/2019

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​Forecaster: Stephen Déry
​
Synoptic overview: There is no major system affecting the Rockies this morning with a weak high pressure system (1021 hPa) residing over Jasper National Park and a weak low pressure system (1015 hPa) in southern BC. The main synoptic feature that affected the Rockies over the past couple of days has shifted very slowly eastward and the low pressure centre (1002 hPa) currently lies on the Saskatchewan/Montana border. It is a vertically stacked low pressure with corresponding upper level lows at 500 and even 250 hPa, suggesting the low is no longer intensifying and will continue a slow progress northeastward. The flow aloft will be from the north and will advect cold air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere leading to instability as the surface gradually warms today. In the short- to medium-term an elongated upper level trough will continue to influence our study area inducing possible weak convection later in the day.
Nipika
​
GEM2.5 Partly cloudy conditions with a slight (40%) chance of showers today mainly in the afternoon with the risk of a thunderstorm around 4 pm. The model suggests an accumulation of 5.6 mm over one hour, perhaps due to a passing storm (CAPE values ~800 J/kg). Temperatures will warm to 18°C by the afternoon. Clearing thereafter and possibility of scattered showers on Sunday with total accumulation of ~1.5 mm. 

GEM10 predicts similar conditions but with more abundant precipitation starting around 1 am MDT on Sunday for a total daily accumulation of 10 mm with precipitation ending near 3 pm.

HRRR minimal precipitation today 1.3 mm starting at 1 pm

NAM resembles GEM10 with overnight precipitation totaling ~10 mm.

​Fortress Mountain
​
GEM2.5 Convective instability will affect Fortress today with scattered showers starting around noon. Total precipitation during the day is ~4 mm in liquid form. Temperatures will peak at ~12°C. Similar conditions will prevail on Sunday with possibly another 4 mm or precipitation around 3 pm.

GEM10 Minimal precipitation today ~1 mm with slightly higher amount Sunday starting around noon (4 mm).

HRRR is dry at Fortress for this forecast cycle.

​NAM is wet, suggests precipitation starting ~8 pm Saturday until noon Sunday with total accumulation 13 mm (all liquid).
Storm Mountain Lodge
​
GEM2.5 Similar conditions to the other sites with clouds and convective precipitation starting mid-day with total accumulation (all liquid) of 2 mm both today and tomorrow. Maximum temperature will reach 20°C.
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June 21 - 1600 UTC (brief update)

6/21/2019

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FORCASTER: Hilary Smith

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
The low pressure that was located over central AB is tracking eastward and is now on the border of AB and SK. Rainfall amounts will likely decrease throughout the day, starting in northern AB. According to the ECCC weather discussion, "wrap around" moisture from the low located over Montana will result in heavy precipitation over the southern Rockies. Rainfall warnings are still in effect for the Kananaskis-Canmore area and are expected to end in the evening. The Bow Valley region could see rainfall amounts exceeding 100 mm. 
NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (0000 MDT June 21) Small amounts of liquid precipitation are exected to end at 1 pm MDT Friday. Temperatures will range from 6.0°C to 14.2°C over the course of the day. Winds are light from the north.

​GEM 25 (1800 MDT June 20)
 Liquid precipitation is expected to end around noon. The next few days look to be mainly clear, with small amounts of liquid precipitation forecast for Sunday and into Monday. 

For the most part, the American models are showing a similar precipitation outlook for today. 
FORTRESS
GEM 2.5 (0000 MDT June 21) Liquid precipitation is forecast until 8 pm MDT Friday night, however the majority of precipitation will end around 4 pm MDT. Temperatures will range from 2.2°C to 6.1°C over the course of the day. Winds are moderate from the north. 

GEM 25 (1800 MDT June 20)
 Liquid precipitation is expected to end in the late afternoon, with trace amounts forecast to last into the late evening Friday. The next few days look to be mainly clear, with small amounts of liquid precipitation forecast for Sunday. 

For the most part, the American models are showing a similar precipitation outlook for today. 
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June 21 - 0300 UTC

6/20/2019

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FORECASTER: Hilary Smith

​SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
Current radar images (9 pm MDT) show substantial precipitation moving towards Fortress Mountain. There is a low pressure system located in central Alberta which is affecting the SPADE region and bringing significant precipitation into the area. According to ECCC weather analysis, there will be an unstable airmass located over the east Kootenays Friday, and the bulk of the precipitation will occur on the eastern Rockies. Moderate rain and snow is expected on the western side of Rockies. There is currently a rainfall warning in effect for Kananaskis-Canmore due to sustained rainfall which may become heavy at times. Total rainfall amounts of 50 - 80 mm are expected, and winter conditions may occur at higher elevations. The heaviest rain is expected to end on Friday. 
NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (1200 MDT) 10.3 mm of liquid precipitation is expected from 2am until 9pm Friday, with the majority of precipitation (9mm) occurring between 2am and 8am. Temperatures are expected to be in the range of 4.8°C to 16.6°C, with winds predominantly from the north and northwest.

GEM 10 (1200 MDT) Sustained precipitation is expected throughout Friday from 12am to 2pm, with a maximum intensity of 0.8mm/h. 

GEM 25 (0600 MDT) Solid precipitation is expected from 6pm Thursday to 12pm Friday. There may be a transition into snow or mixed precipitation at any point during this time. 

HRRR (1900 MDT)  Liquid precipitation is expected to occur from 11 pm Thursday until 7 am Friday.

​RAP (2000 MDT) Liquid precipitation is expected to occur from 9pm Thursday until 10 am Friday. There could be a transition into snow or mixed precipitation starting at 1 am. 


NAM (1200 UTC) Liquid precipitation is expected to start at 8 pm Thursday and continuing until 6 am Friday. 
FORTRESS
GEM 2.5 (1200 MDT)
29 mm of liquid precipitation and 20.1 cm of solid precipitation is expected from 1 am until 11 pm Friday. Precipitation will start as solid and there will be a transition into liquid precipitation at 6 am. There may be another transition into solid or mixed precipitation Friday evening. Temperatures are expected to be in the range of -0.1°C to 4.3°C, with moderate winds predominantly from the north and northeast.  


GEM 10 (1200 MDT) Sustained precipitation is expected starting at 8 pm Thursday and continuing until 9 pm Friday, starting as solid and transitioning into liquid at 9 am. 

GEM 25 (0600 MDT) Liquid precipitation is expected to start at 6 pm Thursday and continue until 6 pm Friday. There will likely be a period of snow or mixed precipitation from 9 pm until 6 am.  

HRRR (1900 MDT) Solid precipitation is expected to start at 9 pm Thursday and transition into liquid at 1 am Friday. Liquid precipitation is expected to continue Friday until the end of the forecast horizon (1pm). 

​RAP (2000 MDT) Solid precipitation is expected to start at 8 pm Thursday and transition into liquid at 7 am Friday. Liquid precipitation, with the possibility of solid precipitation from 8 am to 9 am, is expected to continue Friday until the end of the forecast horizon (5 pm).


NAM (1800 UTC) Liquid precipitation is expected to start at 7 pm Thursday and continuing until 6 pm Friday. There will likely be solid precipitation from 12am to 2 am Friday. 
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June 20 - 0200 UTC

6/19/2019

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FORECASTERS: Juris Almonte & Hilary Smith

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
There is a low pressure located on the border of Alberta and Saskatchewan that is affecting the SPADE region.  According to the ECCC weather discussion, this low pressure system will give a long duration rainfall event for the SPADE area. It is expected that the upper low will be over southern Alberta Thursday morning, causing an easterly flow and continued rain. 
NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (1200 MDT) - 7.3 mm of liquid precipitation expected from 5 AM tonight till 4PM Thurs. June 20. During the event expect temperatures of ~5-6°C in the valley. Winds will be predominantly northwesterly. Precipitation begins again Friday June 21 at 7AM and continues till the end of model run.
GEM 10 (June 19 1200 MDT) Sustained precipitation throughout Thursday and Friday with higher intensities on Friday (0.9 mm/h). 

GEM 25 (0600 MDT) Coolest temperatures are going to be Thursday night into Friday morning. Consistent with GEM regional, intensities are highest Thursday night to Friday early morning. Snow is expected at higher elevations, with the possibility of mixed precipitation in the valley. Long term, looks like a busy week for SPADE. Another heavier precipitation event is expected on Monday night (June 24) into Tuesday evening (June 25). 

HRRR (1800 MDT) & RAP (1700 MDT) HRRR suggesting nothing tomorrow and 3 mm of precipitation Thursday from 0800 - 1200 MDT. RAP showing 3.1 mm with the bulk occurring from 0800-1200 MDT. Wet bulb freezing level is expected to be ~1800 m. 

NAM (1200 UTC) shows sustained precipitation on Thursday, with more dispersed precipitation Friday and Saturday. 
FORTRESS
GEM2.5 (1200 MDT) – Solid precipitation is expected to start again at 2100 MDT Wednesday night and continue until 0000 MDT. Solid precipitation will return at 0400 MDT Thursday morning until 1500 UTC Thursday afternoon. There may be trace amounts of precipitation in the evening. Total amounts will be approximately 12.8 cm. Solid precipitation is expected to start again at 0600 MDT Friday morning and transition into liquid precipitation at 1000 MDT and continue as liquid until the end of the forecast horizon (1200 MDT). Total amounts for Friday are expected to be approximately 8.1 cm of snow and 2.5 mm of rain. Temperatures should vary between +1.7ºC and -1.8ºC on Thursday, and +3.4ºC and -0.3ºC on Friday. Winds are predicted to be predominantly westerly, becoming northerly Thursday afternoon and into Friday.

GEM10 (1200 MDT) – Solid precipitation is expected to start at 2200 UTC Wednesday night and continue throughout the day Thursday and into Friday. A transition into liquid precipitation is expected at 1100 MDT Friday morning and continue until the end of the forecast horizon (1800 MDT). 

HRRR (1800 MDT) – Trace amounts of rainfall are expected throughout Wednesday night and early Friday, with a transition to snowfall around 0600 MDT Thursday morning until the end of the forecast horizon (1200 MDT). There is a chance that snowfall will transition back to rainfall midday on Thursday. 

RAP (1700 MDT) – Trace amounts of snowfall are expected throughout Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation amounts look to pick up around 0800 MDT Thursday morning and continue until the end of the forecast horizon (1400 MDT). 

GEM25 (0600 MDT) – Precipitation is expected to happen between Wednesday 0900 MDT and Saturday 1200 MDT. The event will predominantly start as rainfall, and transition to snowfall Thursday evening, and then transition back to rainfall Friday morning. The maximum amounts of precipitation are likely to occur Thursday evening into Friday morning. 

NAM (1200 MDT) – Sustained liquid and solid precipitation throughout Wednesday and Thursday, with the possibility of thunderstorms. More scattered liquid precipitation is expected to occur Friday and trace amounts expected Saturday. 
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June 19 - 0100 UTC

6/18/2019

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FORECASTER(S): André Bertoncini, Hilary Smith & Juris Almonte
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Similar to this morning's forecast, but ECCC discussions mention a new low pressure system that will occur over central AB. Snowfall warnings are in effect to the North of us over Jasper National Park. 
​
NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (1200 MDT) - 1. 5mm of liquid precipitation expected from 2 AM tonight till 4PM Wed. June 19, likely associated with CAPE values of ~600 J/kg. A high of ~14-15°C in the valley. Winds will be predominantly northwesterly. No precipitation on Thursday till 12 PM MDT end of model run.

GEM 10 (0600 MDT) 12.6 mm of rain to begin at midnight tonight and ending Thurs. at 2AM MDT. Bulk of rain to be tonight from midnight to 8AM MDT. Trace amounts from 12 PM MDT Wed. to Thurs. 2AM MDT. No snow expected. Temps around 12-13°C.

GEM 25 (0600 MDT) Consistent with GEM 2.5 and GEM 10 with regards to timing. Event from Wednesday to Friday. Freezing levels ~2000 m. Break on Saturday with precipitation beginning again Sunday afternoon till Friday (end of model run).

HRRR (1700 MDT) & RAP (1700 MDT) Minimal amounts of rain (0.4 mm) tomorrow. RAP showing 4.2 mm with the bulk occurring from 0100-0400 MDT and a trace amount during Wednesday afternoon.

NAM (1800 UTC) shows trace amounts of precipitation Wednesday (0900 -1500 MDT) with more of a sustained event from Thurs. 1500 MDT to Fri. 0900 MDT. From Wed to Fri, NAM is expecting 10.8 mm.

STORM LODGE
GEM2.5 (June 18 - 1200 MDT) – 1.6 mm of rainfall is predicted to happen on Wednesday from 0600 to 1800 MDT, with the majority (1.3 mm) happening between 1600 MDT to 1800 MDT. Temperatures will fall throughout the day to approximately 5°C.

​GEM10 (June 18 - 0600 MDT) – Trace precipitation is predicted to happen for a few hours overnight. Rainfall is predicted to start at 0900 MDT Wednesday morning and will transition to snow around 1800 MDT and last until 0100 MDT Thursday. Approximately 5.9 mm of rain and 3.4 cm of snow is predicted to occur.

​HRRR (June 18 - 1700 MDT) – There is trace precipitation predicted up to Wednesday 1100 MDT.

RAP (June 18 - 1700 MDT) – 2.8 mm of rainfall is predicted to happen between 1200 MDT to 0300 MDT Wednesday, with the possibility of a thunderstorm. There are a few instances of trace precipitation throughout the day.

GEM25 (June 17 - 0600 MDT) – Rainfall is predicted to start 0600 MDT Wednesday morning and will transition to snow around 0900 MDT. Approximately 43.9 cm of snow is predicted to occur until 0300 MDT Friday morning. It will transition back to rain until 2100 MDT Friday night, with an accumulation of 11 mm. Trace precipitation may start Saturday afternoon with the chance of a larger event starting early Sunday morning.

NAM (June 18 - 1200 MDT) – 0.9 mm of liquid precipitation is predicted to occur overnight from 2200 MDT Tuesday until 0200 MDT Wednesday morning. Rainfall is expected to pick up again from 0700 MDT Wednesday morning and will become mixed until 1900 MDT Wednesday evening, with 0.9 mm of rainfall and 3.7 cm of snowfall.
 


FORTRESS
GEM2.5 (June 18 - 1200 MDT) – Precipitation is expected to start on Wednesday at 0000 MDT. The bulk of rainfall is expected to happen between 0000 and 0600 MDT, but there are scattered rainfall expected to happen on Wednesday morning and afternoon. On Wednesday 1900 MDT snowfall is expected to start and continuing until Thursday 0900 MDT. Total accumulation of rainfall is expected to be 2.5 mm and of snowfall 4.7 cm. Temperatures should vary between 6.4 ºC and -1.6 ºC during this precipitation event. Winds are predicted to be predominantly westerly.

GEM10 (June 18 - 0600 MDT) – The timing for this model is similar to GEM 2.5, but with a break in precipitation between Wednesday 0500 and 1000 MDT. The event will be composed of rainfall until 1100 MDT, mixed precipitation until 1400 MDT, and then only snowfall until Thursday 0000 MDT. Total accumulation is expected to be 4.8 mm of rainfall and 28.6 cm of snowfall.

HRRR (June 18 - 1700 MDT) – This model is predicting rainfall starting on Wednesday 0900 MDT until the end of the forecast horizon (1100 MDT), but with trace precipitation happening before that in the morning. Total accumulation of 0.7 mm of rainfall.

RAP (June 18 - 1700 MDT) – Rainfall is expected to start on Tuesday 2000 MDT and end on Wednesday 0600 MDT. Total accumulation of 1.6 mm.

GEM25 (June 18 - 0600 MDT) – Precipitation is expected to happen between Wednesday 0000 MDT and Saturday 0600 MDT. The event will start as rainfall, change to snowfall during Thursday, and then change back again during Friday. Total accumulation is expected to be 31.7 mm of rainfall and 19.4 cm of snowfall for this event.

NAM (June 18 - 1200 MDT)
– Continuous mixed precipitation is expected to start on Wednesday 1000 MDT and end on Friday 2100 MDT. Total accumulation is expected to be 30.2 mm of rainfall and 4.2 cm of snowfall.
​
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June 18 , 2019 - 1500 UTC

6/18/2019

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FORECASTER(S): André Bertoncini & Juris Almonte
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A surface low (1001 hPa) is located over the border of the NWT with a surface trough extending into Southern Alberta.  This trough is the main feature today in the ECCC weather discussions and is expected to move eastward out of our study region by this afternoon. Convective activity is expected with the movement of the trough, with greatest CAPE values along the foothills. CaPA is showing heavier precipitation amounts to the north of the SPADE region over the next 24 h.  

NIPIKA 

GEM 2.5 (1800 UTC) has a trace amount of precip. expected tomorrow (Wed). Temperature reaching to 24-25°C. 

GEM 10 (1800 UTC) Sustained precipitation begins Wednesday as rain with possible mixed precipitation Thursday. 11 mm is expected on Wednesday.

GEM 25 (1200 UTC) Shows precip also beginning Wed., with a longer duration event spanning Thurs. and Fri. with the possibility of mixed precip.

HRRR (1200 UTC) & RAP (1200 UTC) show no precip. for today.

​NAM (1800 UTC) shows a ~24 h precip. event beginning early morning Thurs. (0900 UTC) 


​STORM LODGE
GEM2.5 (June 18 - 0000 MDT) – 0.9 mm of rainfall is predicted to happen Tuesday from 0600 to 0800 MDT. On Wednesday 1.5 mm of rainfall is expected to happen scattered between the morning and evening.

​GEM10 (June 18 - 0000 MDT) – 0.6 mm of rainfall is predicted to happen Tuesday from 0600 to 0800 MDT. On Wednesday rainfall is expected to start at 0700 MDT and change to snowfall at 2100 MDT, continuing into Thursday. Total accumulation for the Wednesday/Thursday event until 0300 MDT is expected to be 6.2 mm of rainfall and 3.7 cm of snowfall.

​HRRR (June 18 - 0700 MDT) – there is no precipitation predicted until Wednesday 0100 MDT.

RAP (June 18 - 0700 MDT) – there is 0.4 mm of rainfall predicted to happen until Wednesday 0400 MDT.

GEM25 (June 17 - 1800 MDT) – a small event of mixed precipitation (2.5 mm of rainfall and 2.1 cm of snowfall) is expected to happen on Wednesday between 0600 and 1800 MDT. After a break, a major mixed precipitation event is expected to start on Thursday 0600 MDT until Saturday 0600 MDT. This event will start as snowfall and will change to rainfall on Friday 0600 MDT. Total accumulation is expected to be 19.6 mm of rainfall and 29.2 cm of snowfall.

NAM (June 18 - 0600 MDT) – a major event of mixed precipitation is expected to start on Wednesday 0900 MDT. Until the end of the forecast horizon (Friday 1800 MDT) a total of 1.5 mm of rainfall and 12.1 cm of snowfall is expected. 
FORTRESS
GEM 2.5 (1800 UTC) has no precip in the forecast for today and a trace amount for tomorrow. Westerly winds for the next two days

GEM 10 (1800 UTC) The more sustained event begins tomorrow (Wed.) at 0600 UTC, with some breaks in between precip.  About 30 cm snowfall is expected till the end of the forecast run Thurs (1200 UTC) starting around Wed. at 1800 UTC.

GEM 25 (0000 UTC) Bulk of precip. happening Thurs. and ending Saturday.

HRRR (1200 UTC) & RAP (1200 UTC) show no precip. for today.

NAM (1800 UTC) shows main event beginning Thurs. and till the end of the model simulation till Fri. 1800 UTC. Main snow day will be on Thurs and transitions back to rain on Fri. 



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June 18 0200 UTC

6/17/2019

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 FORECASTER: Aurélie Desroches-Lapointe & Jeremy Morris
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
​The upper low tracking from the armpit of Alaska continues to travel southeastwards toward the coast mountains and is expected to distribute into a trough as the system pushes over the coast mountains into the interior of BC. The surface trough is supported by a 500 mb trough, promoting system development. The precipitation is expected to begin in the SPADE region Wednesday morning and may persist through Friday.
NIPIKA:
GEM2.5 (1200 MDT) - 1mm of rain expected Tuesday between 0200 and 0300 MDT.
GEM10 (1200 MDT) - 6.1mm of rain Wednesday between midnight and 0300 MDT with and additional 10mm of rain between 0500 and 1500 MDT. Heavy rain starts again at 1600 MDT.
HRRR (1700 MDT) - 1.8mm of rain forecasted for Tuesday between 0300 and 0500 MDT.
RAP (1700 MDT) - 1mm of rain and thunderstorms predicted to occur between 0100 and 0400 MDT.
GEM25 (0600 MDT) -  Light rain on Tuesday from 0600 until 1800 MDT picking up again on Wednesday at 1200 MDT to reach a maximum rain intensity of 1.7mm/3h, decreasing until the end at 2100 MDT.
Precipitation to start again Thursday at 0300 MDT at a light intensity, and increase significantly at 1200 MDT for a large event lasting until late Friday. Mixed precip might be expected as the atmospheric temperature at 1824 m is forecasted to hover around 0C.
NAM (1200 MDT)  - Suggests the same kind of event but starting at 0400 MDT.
​
​STORM LODGE:
GEM2.5 (1200 MDT) - Brief bout of rainfall expected between 0100 MDT and 0500 MDT Wednesday with an accumulation of 2.3mm
GEM10 (1200 MDT) - Light rainfall to start at 0100 MDT Wednesday, increasing in intensity to 1 mm/hr at 0600 MDT with potential for mixed precip. The event is forecasted to continue through the day.
GEM25 (0600 MDT) - Low intensity rain is expected to start late Tuesday, developing into mixed precip mid Wednesday morning. Precipitation intensity predicted to increase significantly on Thursday afternoon with a total of 26 mm of rain, and 26cm of snow to accumulate by mid Friday.
NAM (1200 MDT) - Trace rain for Tuesday, picking up Wednesday mid morning with spotty snowfall to occur through to Thursday. Intensity to increase early Thursday for a total accumulation of roughly 10cm snow and 2.7mm of rain by end of model run Thursday at midnight.
HRRR & RAP (0600 MDT) - trace or no precip expected through Tuesday.


​FORTRESS:
​
GEM2.5 (1200 MDT) - Light rain Tuesday from 0300 until 0500 MDT accumulating 0.5mm and with trace amounts of rain Wednesday between 0100 and 0300 MDT.
GEM10 (1200 MDT) - ​3.5mm of rain expected Wednesday from midnight until 0400 MDT followed by a possible mixed precip event starting as heavy rain at 0600 and changing into heavy snow at 0800 MDT. The intensity is suggested to decrease drastically at 0900, leading to a light precip rate until, at least 1800m, which correspond to the end of the run.
HRRR and RAP (runs of 06pm): No precipitation forecasted until Tuesday at 1200 MDT.

GEM25 (0600 MDT) -  ​Precipitation is suggested to begin between Tuesday at 0600 and Wednesday 2100 MDT for a total accumulation of 11.5 mm of rain and 0.9cm of snow. This event is then followed by intense mixed precipitation event suggested to bring 70.2 mm of rain and 23.3 cm of snow between Thursday at noon and Saturday at 0900 MDT. This is also followed by on and off rain until, at least the end of the field campaign, adding another 115.9mm of rain for a total of 186.1mm. As this corresponds to the end of the forecast run (Thursday June 27 at 0600 MDT) more precipitation might occur.
​
NAM (run of 12pm): 1.1mm accumulation of rain is suggested Wednesday. Intense mixed precipitation then starts Thursday at 0600 MDT and lasts until, at least midnight, which correspond to the end of the run, when the total accumulated amount of precipitation is forecasted to be 22.8mm of rain and 16.9cm or snow.




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June 17 - 1300 UTC

6/17/2019

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FORECASTERS: Jeremy Morris & Aurélie Desroches-Lapointe
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
Unsettled conditions caused by the upper low and associated trough tends to potential for spotty showers and thunderstorms across the province. Daytime warming may cause further destabilization of the air mass, further promoting thunder storms. On a larger spatial scale, there is currently no well defined surface system in our study zone, however a 500 hPa low is located above us. The low pressure system currently located over the Pacific Ocean off the Alaska panhandle is developing eastward, forming a trough off BC coast. As the system breaks apart upon reaching the coast mountains, models suggest that precipitation will reach our area by Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning. 
​NIPIKA
HRRR (1200 UTC) - Spotty rain through the day, 1.7mm predicted between 7 and 8pm.
GEM2.5 (0600 UTC) - 1.4mm predicted to occur overnight in spotty showers.
GEM10 (0600 UTC)- Rainfall in forecast for early Tuesday amounting to 1.4mm around 5am. Larger event predicted to start midnight on tuesday.
GEM25 (0000 UTC)- Light showers forecasted for early Tuesday through Wednesday night with more sustained rainfall to start Thursday late morning.
​STORM LODGE
HRRR - No precip in forecast
GEM2.5 - Spotty rainfall to occur through Monday into early Tuesday amounting to 1.5mm.
GEM10 - Trace to fall Monday afternoon, more significant amounts to start early Wednesday.
GEM25 - Small event predicted for late Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon, picking up again thrusday with potential snowfall and significant accumulation.
FORTRESS
HRRR (1200 UTC) - Showers forecasted to start at 3pm accumulating 4.7mm by the end of model run at 11pm
GEM2.5 (0600 UTC) - Isolated showers occurring between 12pm and 9pm amounting to 2.3mm total. Very light winds and decreased pressure during this time.
GEM10 (0600 UTC) - Trace rainfall forecasted between now and early Wednesday.
GEM25 (0000 UTC) - Trace rainfall today. Light rains forecasted to start Tuesday morning into Wednesday afternoon before picking up again with chances of snow on Thursday morning for a big event.
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