June 18 0200 UTC

 FORECASTER: Aurélie Desroches-Lapointe & Jeremy Morris

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
​The upper low tracking from the armpit of Alaska continues to travel southeastwards toward the coast mountains and is expected to distribute into a trough as the system pushes over the coast mountains into the interior of BC. The surface trough is supported by a 500 mb trough, promoting system development. The precipitation is expected to begin in the SPADE region Wednesday morning and may persist through Friday.

NIPIKA:
GEM2.5 (1200 MDT) - 1mm of rain expected Tuesday between 0200 and 0300 MDT.
GEM10 (1200 MDT) - 6.1mm of rain Wednesday between midnight and 0300 MDT with and additional 10mm of rain between 0500 and 1500 MDT. Heavy rain starts again at 1600 MDT.
HRRR (1700 MDT) - 1.8mm of rain forecasted for Tuesday between 0300 and 0500 MDT.
RAP (1700 MDT) - 1mm of rain and thunderstorms predicted to occur between 0100 and 0400 MDT.
GEM25 (0600 MDT) -  Light rain on Tuesday from 0600 until 1800 MDT picking up again on Wednesday at 1200 MDT to reach a maximum rain intensity of 1.7mm/3h, decreasing until the end at 2100 MDT.
Precipitation to start again Thursday at 0300 MDT at a light intensity, and increase significantly at 1200 MDT for a large event lasting until late Friday. Mixed precip might be expected as the atmospheric temperature at 1824 m is forecasted to hover around 0C.
NAM (1200 MDT)  - Suggests the same kind of event but starting at 0400 MDT.
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​STORM LODGE:
GEM2.5 (1200 MDT) - Brief bout of rainfall expected between 0100 MDT and 0500 MDT Wednesday with an accumulation of 2.3mm
GEM10 (1200 MDT) - Light rainfall to start at 0100 MDT Wednesday, increasing in intensity to 1 mm/hr at 0600 MDT with potential for mixed precip. The event is forecasted to continue through the day.
GEM25 (0600 MDT) - Low intensity rain is expected to start late Tuesday, developing into mixed precip mid Wednesday morning. Precipitation intensity predicted to increase significantly on Thursday afternoon with a total of 26 mm of rain, and 26cm of snow to accumulate by mid Friday.
NAM (1200 MDT) - Trace rain for Tuesday, picking up Wednesday mid morning with spotty snowfall to occur through to Thursday. Intensity to increase early Thursday for a total accumulation of roughly 10cm snow and 2.7mm of rain by end of model run Thursday at midnight.
HRRR & RAP (0600 MDT) - trace or no precip expected through Tuesday.

​FORTRESS:
​GEM2.5 (1200 MDT) - Light rain Tuesday from 0300 until 0500 MDT accumulating 0.5mm and with trace amounts of rain Wednesday between 0100 and 0300 MDT.
GEM10 (1200 MDT) - ​3.5mm of rain expected Wednesday from midnight until 0400 MDT followed by a possible mixed precip event starting as heavy rain at 0600 and changing into heavy snow at 0800 MDT. The intensity is suggested to decrease drastically at 0900, leading to a light precip rate until, at least 1800m, which correspond to the end of the run.
HRRR and RAP (runs of 06pm): No precipitation forecasted until Tuesday at 1200 MDT.

GEM25 (0600 MDT) -  ​Precipitation is suggested to begin between Tuesday at 0600 and Wednesday 2100 MDT for a total accumulation of 11.5 mm of rain and 0.9cm of snow. This event is then followed by intense mixed precipitation event suggested to bring 70.2 mm of rain and 23.3 cm of snow between Thursday at noon and Saturday at 0900 MDT. This is also followed by on and off rain until, at least the end of the field campaign, adding another 115.9mm of rain for a total of 186.1mm. As this corresponds to the end of the forecast run (Thursday June 27 at 0600 MDT) more precipitation might occur.
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NAM (run of 12pm): 1.1mm accumulation of rain is suggested Wednesday. Intense mixed precipitation then starts Thursday at 0600 MDT and lasts until, at least midnight, which correspond to the end of the run, when the total accumulated amount of precipitation is forecasted to be 22.8mm of rain and 16.9cm or snow.