June 23 - 1500 UTC

FORECASTER: Juris Almonte
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Similar to yesterday's forecast, no major system is affecting the SPADE region today. However there is potential for convective storms over the foothills today. The surface charts (1200 UTC) show a low pressure system (1000 hPa) midway up the over the border of SK and MB. A strong high pressure system (1032 hPa) on the coast of the US Pacific northwest and a weak low pressure system (1013 hPa) over northern BC. 

NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (0000 MDT) - 3.5 mm of rain expected at Nipika from 11 AM - 7 PM with a 3 h break from 3-5 PM. Highs of ~19°C to be expected this afternoon. CAPE values of ~500 J/kg. 

GEM 10 (0000 MDT) - Similar to high-res model, but with increased precipitation (6.6 mm) from 1300-1700 MDT.

GEM 25 ( June 22 - 1800 MDT) - Long range suggests precipitation throughout the week, but nothing substantial till Thursday. 

HRRR (0700 MDT) & RAP (0700 MDT) - Both models show about 5 mm of rain from late morning to 1800-2000 MDT 

FORTRESS
GEM 2.5 (0000 MDT) - About 4.4 mm of rain and 1.3 cm of snow is expected beginning at noon (MDT) and ending at 2100 MDT with a high of ~11°C, westerly winds and CAPE values of ~500 J/kg. With the warm temperatures, snow was forecasted likely due to evaporative cooling from the high precipitation intensity expected the hour prior and the dry conditions. 

GEM 10 (0000 MDT) - Similar the the high-res model, except with more precipitation starting again in the early hours of the 24th from 0100-0400 MDT. 

GEM 25 (June 22 - 1800 MDT) - Long range suggests precipitation throughout much of next week, though nothing substantial until perhaps Thursday.

HRRR (0600 MDT), RAP (0700 MDT)  - HRRR showing precipitation beginning as early as 0900 MDT and ending at 1700 MDT. RAP showing more precipitation than HRRR, with 10.3 mm of rain expected, starting 11 AM MDT to 7 PM MDT.

NAM (0000 MDT) - showing precipitation from 9AM to 10 PM tonight