June 18 , 2019 - 1500 UTC

FORECASTER(S): André Bertoncini & Juris Almonte
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A surface low (1001 hPa) is located over the border of the NWT with a surface trough extending into Southern Alberta.  This trough is the main feature today in the ECCC weather discussions and is expected to move eastward out of our study region by this afternoon. Convective activity is expected with the movement of the trough, with greatest CAPE values along the foothills. CaPA is showing heavier precipitation amounts to the north of the SPADE region over the next 24 h.  

NIPIKA 
GEM 2.5 (1800 UTC) has a trace amount of precip. expected tomorrow (Wed). Temperature reaching to 24-25°C. 

GEM 10 (1800 UTC) Sustained precipitation begins Wednesday as rain with possible mixed precipitation Thursday. 11 mm is expected on Wednesday.

GEM 25 (1200 UTC) Shows precip also beginning Wed., with a longer duration event spanning Thurs. and Fri. with the possibility of mixed precip.

HRRR (1200 UTC) & RAP (1200 UTC) show no precip. for today.

​NAM (1800 UTC) shows a ~24 h precip. event beginning early morning Thurs. (0900 UTC) 

​STORM LODGE
GEM2.5 (June 18 - 0000 MDT) – 0.9 mm of rainfall is predicted to happen Tuesday from 0600 to 0800 MDT. On Wednesday 1.5 mm of rainfall is expected to happen scattered between the morning and evening.

​GEM10 (June 18 - 0000 MDT) – 0.6 mm of rainfall is predicted to happen Tuesday from 0600 to 0800 MDT. On Wednesday rainfall is expected to start at 0700 MDT and change to snowfall at 2100 MDT, continuing into Thursday. Total accumulation for the Wednesday/Thursday event until 0300 MDT is expected to be 6.2 mm of rainfall and 3.7 cm of snowfall.

​HRRR (June 18 - 0700 MDT) – there is no precipitation predicted until Wednesday 0100 MDT.

RAP (June 18 - 0700 MDT) – there is 0.4 mm of rainfall predicted to happen until Wednesday 0400 MDT.

GEM25 (June 17 - 1800 MDT) – a small event of mixed precipitation (2.5 mm of rainfall and 2.1 cm of snowfall) is expected to happen on Wednesday between 0600 and 1800 MDT. After a break, a major mixed precipitation event is expected to start on Thursday 0600 MDT until Saturday 0600 MDT. This event will start as snowfall and will change to rainfall on Friday 0600 MDT. Total accumulation is expected to be 19.6 mm of rainfall and 29.2 cm of snowfall.

NAM (June 18 - 0600 MDT) – a major event of mixed precipitation is expected to start on Wednesday 0900 MDT. Until the end of the forecast horizon (Friday 1800 MDT) a total of 1.5 mm of rainfall and 12.1 cm of snowfall is expected. 

FORTRESS
GEM 2.5 (1800 UTC) has no precip in the forecast for today and a trace amount for tomorrow. Westerly winds for the next two days

GEM 10 (1800 UTC) The more sustained event begins tomorrow (Wed.) at 0600 UTC, with some breaks in between precip.  About 30 cm snowfall is expected till the end of the forecast run Thurs (1200 UTC) starting around Wed. at 1800 UTC.

GEM 25 (0000 UTC) Bulk of precip. happening Thurs. and ending Saturday.

HRRR (1200 UTC) & RAP (1200 UTC) show no precip. for today.

NAM (1800 UTC) shows main event beginning Thurs. and till the end of the model simulation till Fri. 1800 UTC. Main snow day will be on Thurs and transitions back to rain on Fri.