June 20 - 0200 UTC

FORECASTERS: Juris Almonte & Hilary Smith

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
There is a low pressure located on the border of Alberta and Saskatchewan that is affecting the SPADE region.  According to the ECCC weather discussion, this low pressure system will give a long duration rainfall event for the SPADE area. It is expected that the upper low will be over southern Alberta Thursday morning, causing an easterly flow and continued rain. 

NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (1200 MDT) - 7.3 mm of liquid precipitation expected from 5 AM tonight till 4PM Thurs. June 20. During the event expect temperatures of ~5-6°C in the valley. Winds will be predominantly northwesterly. Precipitation begins again Friday June 21 at 7AM and continues till the end of model run.
GEM 10 (June 19 1200 MDT) Sustained precipitation throughout Thursday and Friday with higher intensities on Friday (0.9 mm/h). 

GEM 25 (0600 MDT) Coolest temperatures are going to be Thursday night into Friday morning. Consistent with GEM regional, intensities are highest Thursday night to Friday early morning. Snow is expected at higher elevations, with the possibility of mixed precipitation in the valley. Long term, looks like a busy week for SPADE. Another heavier precipitation event is expected on Monday night (June 24) into Tuesday evening (June 25). 

HRRR (1800 MDT) & RAP (1700 MDT) HRRR suggesting nothing tomorrow and 3 mm of precipitation Thursday from 0800 - 1200 MDT. RAP showing 3.1 mm with the bulk occurring from 0800-1200 MDT. Wet bulb freezing level is expected to be ~1800 m. 

NAM (1200 UTC) shows sustained precipitation on Thursday, with more dispersed precipitation Friday and Saturday. 

FORTRESS
GEM2.5 (1200 MDT) – Solid precipitation is expected to start again at 2100 MDT Wednesday night and continue until 0000 MDT. Solid precipitation will return at 0400 MDT Thursday morning until 1500 UTC Thursday afternoon. There may be trace amounts of precipitation in the evening. Total amounts will be approximately 12.8 cm. Solid precipitation is expected to start again at 0600 MDT Friday morning and transition into liquid precipitation at 1000 MDT and continue as liquid until the end of the forecast horizon (1200 MDT). Total amounts for Friday are expected to be approximately 8.1 cm of snow and 2.5 mm of rain. Temperatures should vary between +1.7ºC and -1.8ºC on Thursday, and +3.4ºC and -0.3ºC on Friday. Winds are predicted to be predominantly westerly, becoming northerly Thursday afternoon and into Friday.

GEM10 (1200 MDT) – Solid precipitation is expected to start at 2200 UTC Wednesday night and continue throughout the day Thursday and into Friday. A transition into liquid precipitation is expected at 1100 MDT Friday morning and continue until the end of the forecast horizon (1800 MDT). 

HRRR (1800 MDT) – Trace amounts of rainfall are expected throughout Wednesday night and early Friday, with a transition to snowfall around 0600 MDT Thursday morning until the end of the forecast horizon (1200 MDT). There is a chance that snowfall will transition back to rainfall midday on Thursday. 

RAP (1700 MDT) – Trace amounts of snowfall are expected throughout Wednesday into Thursday morning. Precipitation amounts look to pick up around 0800 MDT Thursday morning and continue until the end of the forecast horizon (1400 MDT). 

GEM25 (0600 MDT) – Precipitation is expected to happen between Wednesday 0900 MDT and Saturday 1200 MDT. The event will predominantly start as rainfall, and transition to snowfall Thursday evening, and then transition back to rainfall Friday morning. The maximum amounts of precipitation are likely to occur Thursday evening into Friday morning. 

NAM (1200 MDT) – Sustained liquid and solid precipitation throughout Wednesday and Thursday, with the possibility of thunderstorms. More scattered liquid precipitation is expected to occur Friday and trace amounts expected Saturday.