June 21 - 0300 UTC

FORECASTER: Hilary Smith

​SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
Current radar images (9 pm MDT) show substantial precipitation moving towards Fortress Mountain. There is a low pressure system located in central Alberta which is affecting the SPADE region and bringing significant precipitation into the area. According to ECCC weather analysis, there will be an unstable airmass located over the east Kootenays Friday, and the bulk of the precipitation will occur on the eastern Rockies. Moderate rain and snow is expected on the western side of Rockies. There is currently a rainfall warning in effect for Kananaskis-Canmore due to sustained rainfall which may become heavy at times. Total rainfall amounts of 50 - 80 mm are expected, and winter conditions may occur at higher elevations. The heaviest rain is expected to end on Friday. 

NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (1200 MDT) 10.3 mm of liquid precipitation is expected from 2am until 9pm Friday, with the majority of precipitation (9mm) occurring between 2am and 8am. Temperatures are expected to be in the range of 4.8°C to 16.6°C, with winds predominantly from the north and northwest.

GEM 10 (1200 MDT) Sustained precipitation is expected throughout Friday from 12am to 2pm, with a maximum intensity of 0.8mm/h. 

GEM 25 (0600 MDT) Solid precipitation is expected from 6pm Thursday to 12pm Friday. There may be a transition into snow or mixed precipitation at any point during this time. 

HRRR (1900 MDT)  Liquid precipitation is expected to occur from 11 pm Thursday until 7 am Friday.

​RAP (2000 MDT) Liquid precipitation is expected to occur from 9pm Thursday until 10 am Friday. There could be a transition into snow or mixed precipitation starting at 1 am. 

NAM (1200 UTC) Liquid precipitation is expected to start at 8 pm Thursday and continuing until 6 am Friday. 

FORTRESS
GEM 2.5 (1200 MDT) 29 mm of liquid precipitation and 20.1 cm of solid precipitation is expected from 1 am until 11 pm Friday. Precipitation will start as solid and there will be a transition into liquid precipitation at 6 am. There may be another transition into solid or mixed precipitation Friday evening. Temperatures are expected to be in the range of -0.1°C to 4.3°C, with moderate winds predominantly from the north and northeast.  

GEM 10 (1200 MDT) Sustained precipitation is expected starting at 8 pm Thursday and continuing until 9 pm Friday, starting as solid and transitioning into liquid at 9 am. 

GEM 25 (0600 MDT) Liquid precipitation is expected to start at 6 pm Thursday and continue until 6 pm Friday. There will likely be a period of snow or mixed precipitation from 9 pm until 6 am.  

HRRR (1900 MDT) Solid precipitation is expected to start at 9 pm Thursday and transition into liquid at 1 am Friday. Liquid precipitation is expected to continue Friday until the end of the forecast horizon (1pm). 

​RAP (2000 MDT) Solid precipitation is expected to start at 8 pm Thursday and transition into liquid at 7 am Friday. Liquid precipitation, with the possibility of solid precipitation from 8 am to 9 am, is expected to continue Friday until the end of the forecast horizon (5 pm).

NAM (1800 UTC) Liquid precipitation is expected to start at 7 pm Thursday and continuing until 6 pm Friday. There will likely be solid precipitation from 12am to 2 am Friday.