June 19 - 0100 UTC

FORECASTER(S): André Bertoncini, Hilary Smith & Juris Almonte
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Similar to this morning's forecast, but ECCC discussions mention a new low pressure system that will occur over central AB. Snowfall warnings are in effect to the North of us over Jasper National Park. 
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NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (1200 MDT) - 1. 5mm of liquid precipitation expected from 2 AM tonight till 4PM Wed. June 19, likely associated with CAPE values of ~600 J/kg. A high of ~14-15°C in the valley. Winds will be predominantly northwesterly. No precipitation on Thursday till 12 PM MDT end of model run.

GEM 10 (0600 MDT) 12.6 mm of rain to begin at midnight tonight and ending Thurs. at 2AM MDT. Bulk of rain to be tonight from midnight to 8AM MDT. Trace amounts from 12 PM MDT Wed. to Thurs. 2AM MDT. No snow expected. Temps around 12-13°C.

GEM 25 (0600 MDT) Consistent with GEM 2.5 and GEM 10 with regards to timing. Event from Wednesday to Friday. Freezing levels ~2000 m. Break on Saturday with precipitation beginning again Sunday afternoon till Friday (end of model run).

HRRR (1700 MDT) & RAP (1700 MDT) Minimal amounts of rain (0.4 mm) tomorrow. RAP showing 4.2 mm with the bulk occurring from 0100-0400 MDT and a trace amount during Wednesday afternoon.

NAM (1800 UTC) shows trace amounts of precipitation Wednesday (0900 -1500 MDT) with more of a sustained event from Thurs. 1500 MDT to Fri. 0900 MDT. From Wed to Fri, NAM is expecting 10.8 mm.

STORM LODGE
GEM2.5 (June 18 - 1200 MDT) – 1.6 mm of rainfall is predicted to happen on Wednesday from 0600 to 1800 MDT, with the majority (1.3 mm) happening between 1600 MDT to 1800 MDT. Temperatures will fall throughout the day to approximately 5°C.

​GEM10 (June 18 - 0600 MDT) – Trace precipitation is predicted to happen for a few hours overnight. Rainfall is predicted to start at 0900 MDT Wednesday morning and will transition to snow around 1800 MDT and last until 0100 MDT Thursday. Approximately 5.9 mm of rain and 3.4 cm of snow is predicted to occur.

​HRRR (June 18 - 1700 MDT) – There is trace precipitation predicted up to Wednesday 1100 MDT.

RAP (June 18 - 1700 MDT) – 2.8 mm of rainfall is predicted to happen between 1200 MDT to 0300 MDT Wednesday, with the possibility of a thunderstorm. There are a few instances of trace precipitation throughout the day.

GEM25 (June 17 - 0600 MDT) – Rainfall is predicted to start 0600 MDT Wednesday morning and will transition to snow around 0900 MDT. Approximately 43.9 cm of snow is predicted to occur until 0300 MDT Friday morning. It will transition back to rain until 2100 MDT Friday night, with an accumulation of 11 mm. Trace precipitation may start Saturday afternoon with the chance of a larger event starting early Sunday morning.

NAM (June 18 - 1200 MDT) – 0.9 mm of liquid precipitation is predicted to occur overnight from 2200 MDT Tuesday until 0200 MDT Wednesday morning. Rainfall is expected to pick up again from 0700 MDT Wednesday morning and will become mixed until 1900 MDT Wednesday evening, with 0.9 mm of rainfall and 3.7 cm of snowfall.
 

FORTRESS
GEM2.5 (June 18 - 1200 MDT) – Precipitation is expected to start on Wednesday at 0000 MDT. The bulk of rainfall is expected to happen between 0000 and 0600 MDT, but there are scattered rainfall expected to happen on Wednesday morning and afternoon. On Wednesday 1900 MDT snowfall is expected to start and continuing until Thursday 0900 MDT. Total accumulation of rainfall is expected to be 2.5 mm and of snowfall 4.7 cm. Temperatures should vary between 6.4 ºC and -1.6 ºC during this precipitation event. Winds are predicted to be predominantly westerly.

GEM10 (June 18 - 0600 MDT) – The timing for this model is similar to GEM 2.5, but with a break in precipitation between Wednesday 0500 and 1000 MDT. The event will be composed of rainfall until 1100 MDT, mixed precipitation until 1400 MDT, and then only snowfall until Thursday 0000 MDT. Total accumulation is expected to be 4.8 mm of rainfall and 28.6 cm of snowfall.

HRRR (June 18 - 1700 MDT) – This model is predicting rainfall starting on Wednesday 0900 MDT until the end of the forecast horizon (1100 MDT), but with trace precipitation happening before that in the morning. Total accumulation of 0.7 mm of rainfall.

RAP (June 18 - 1700 MDT) – Rainfall is expected to start on Tuesday 2000 MDT and end on Wednesday 0600 MDT. Total accumulation of 1.6 mm.

GEM25 (June 18 - 0600 MDT) – Precipitation is expected to happen between Wednesday 0000 MDT and Saturday 0600 MDT. The event will start as rainfall, change to snowfall during Thursday, and then change back again during Friday. Total accumulation is expected to be 31.7 mm of rainfall and 19.4 cm of snowfall for this event.

NAM (June 18 - 1200 MDT) – Continuous mixed precipitation is expected to start on Wednesday 1000 MDT and end on Friday 2100 MDT. Total accumulation is expected to be 30.2 mm of rainfall and 4.2 cm of snowfall.
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