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FORECASTER: Juris Almonte SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Much like the morning, the upper ridge at 500 hPa is still affecting western Canada, a low pressure system is situated off Alaska. Atmospheric river forecasts are showing IVT values over the 250 kg m-1 s-1 threshold by June 2nd and 3rd and then again on the 5th. Upper air charts are from 1200 UTC, as 0000 UTC charts were not available. Of interest next week, high amounts of precipitation are expected on the 5th according to the GEM 2.5. This may be associated with the long range atmospheric river forecast whereby, moisture is advected over to the Rockies from the Pacific.
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FORECASTER: Hilary Smith SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: There is a high pressure system affecting the SPADE area and a developing trough to the west of the SPADE region from Yukon through BC into the US. There is currently nothing popping up on the radar for either of the field sites and we will be monitoring the radar throughout the day and nowcasting. Thunderstorms are possible at both sites.
FORECASTER: Selina Mitchell SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Widespread instability will give rise to showers with a risk of thunderstorms. Convection is expected mainly over ridge tops. Isolated showers are expected for the East Kootenays and the Elk Valley tomorrow morning. Also, afternoon convection is expected tomorrow in Alberta. There is a possibility of thunderstorms in southwestern Alberta. Overall, there is a greater risk of severe weather tomorrow, but the risk is still marginal. More instability is expected over the weekend throughout the study area.
FORECASTER: Juris Almonte SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Low pressure system over Washington state bringing and a low pressure over the northern border of AB and SK. The cold front is moving southwest over AB and SK, but will transition to more of a southerly direction as the low pressure moves SE towards Minnesota state tomorrow morning.
FORECASTERS: Charlie Hébert-Pinard, Hilary Smith & Selina Mitchell SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: The stationary front in the north of Alberta is now a cold front moving to the south east. It is going to bring some precipitation and maybe even some thunderstorms on is way, but these might not occur until it is south of the study region. It will at least bring convection to our area with a small probability of thunderstorms, but since the air is pretty dry and smoke advisory is still in effect, the energy available for this is limited. However, convection in our area could also come from a small low pressure coming from the South.
FORECASTERS: Charlie Hebert-Pinard and Selina Mitchell SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Currently the atmosphere is fairly stable and there is little moisture in the air. There is a gentle upper ridge spanning the province of British Columbia that will divert major systems from the province. However, there are subtle systems embedded in this ridge and they will give rise to convective precipitation including in areas around the Elk Valley. There is a stationary front just slightly to the north of our study area that will give rise to precipitation, but it is unlikely to affect us. There is currently a lot of smoke in the region.
FORECASTER: Juris Almonte SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Conditions remain the same, with a strengthening upper ridge over Northern BC and AB and extending into the YK and NWT. Again, this will cause stability in the atmosphere. A weak trough will make its way onshore by Wednesday.
FORECASTER: Charlie Hébert-Pinard, Selina Mitchell & Juris Almonte SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Similar to yesterday's forecast, a high pressure system is encompassing most of the prairies and to the Great Lakes. The upper level ridge has moved onshore with the crest over Northern BC, bringing mainly fair weather for most of the province. The weak is forecasted to weaken by Wednesday, which will bring some spotty convection over SPADE region.
Forecaster : Cécile Carton SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW Our area remains clear, we should observe stable conditions over the following days.
FORECASTERS: Juris Almonte & Cécile Carton SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Surface high pressure system over the Pacific off the coast of BC and northwestern US. There is an upper low located over northern California, which is causing some of the lingering instability over southern BC, which is still observed over the radar this morning. Though nothing is shown over our area.
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