Forecaster: Stephen Déry
Synoptic overview: The upper-level trough that affected the continental divide this past weekend has moved eastward into central Canada. In its place, an upper-level ridge is building across the western Cordillera bringing quiescent conditions for the early part of this week. Some mid- to upper level clouds will affect the continental divide in association with a warm front over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which will diminish solar radiation and suppress air temperatures today. As well, some instability associated with cold air aloft may lead to showers and even the possibility of some thunderstorms, but these will be isolated. The building ridge will clear out skies starting Tuesday and suppress convection and precipitation until later in the week.
Partly cloudy conditions with a slight (40%) chance of showers today. Temperatures will remain on the mild side and likely reach 16°C by the afternoon with cooler temperatures during cloudy periods.
Partly cloudy conditions with also a slight (30%) chance of showers today at Fortress Mountain. Relatively mild conditions with a maximum near 10°C. Best chance for precipitation will be mid- to later afternoon as destabilization of near-surface air occurs.
Storm Mountain Lodge
Nearly identical conditions to Fortress with partly cloudy conditions and slight (30%) chance of showers today with a maximum near 10°C. Better chance for morning precipitation relative to the other sites
Forecaster : Cécile Carton
A ridge of high pressure is starting to build over the BC coast. While a series of frontal systems will take aim at the coast tomorrow, this ridge will ensure that they won't make it much further than the north coast of BC before weakening. As the ridge builds the temperature is expected to rise over the week.
Forecasters : Cécile Carton & Selina Mitchell
Off of the BC coast a ridge of high pressure is developing. Although frontal systems may try to move onto the the northwestern coast, they will not be able to progress very far within the next couple of days. With the exception of the northwestern coast, temperatures are expected to rise over much of BC., however today some unsettled conditions will persist and showers are possible though much of BC. There is a cool, unstable airmass above most of Alberta today, this will lead to unsettled conditions including scattered thunderstorms over a good portion of the province. Instability will vary greatly, but thunderstorms are expected to be most severe over the foothills.
Forcasters: Aurélie Dseroches-Lapointe & Jeremy Morris
Two surface low pressure systems are currently in vicinity of northwestern Canada, the first one being on the west shore of Hudson Bay, and the second over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of northen BC. A high pressure is also located south of the BC coast. No surface synoptic system is currently located in our area, so any precipitation occurring would be of orographic nature. This surface pattern seems to persist for the next few days, however higher levels patterns are moving across the continent.
Two troughs, at 500 hPa and 250hPa heights respectively, are currently over our study area, moving northeastwards and becoming more negatively tilted which correspond to the SE-NW direction. Additionally, high-level ridges (500 and 250 hPa respectively) are currently above the surface high pressure zone located over the Pacific Ocean that was mentionned before. These ridges are building up as they approach us in the next few days.
FORECASTER: Aurélie Desroches-Lapointe
According to GEM10, GEM25 and NAM, a deep 500hPa trough is aligned S-N above our study area, with a high pressure band over the rockies. Due to air flow coming from the NW, orographic showers and chances of storms are forecasted from now to Sunday 0600UTC. On a longer timescale, a low pressure system currently over the Pacific Ocean might start to affect our area on Monday around noon according to GEM10, and in the evening according to NAM (UTC). GEM2.5 suggests this system may barely reach our study zone. At higher elevations, 250hPa winds causing divergence, which could enhance any potential precipitation, are forecasted from Monday evening onwards.
Forecaster: Selina Mitchell
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A cold upper trough is moving into south and central Alberta today and there is enhanced upslope precipitation in the Rockies as a consequence. A snowfall warning remains in effect for Banff and Kananaskis. Snow is expected to occur at 1400 m and above.
Forecaster: Stephen Déry & Angel
Synoptic overview: The continental divide is presently under the influence of a strong upper level trough currently moving across the western Cordillera with an associated surface low pressure system. The main surface low with central sea-level pressure of 997 hPa resides over Montana and will move northeastward into Saskatchewan this morning. Precipitation on the ‘back’ side of the system has impacted our study area overnight and the cloud and precipitation shields are moving back towards the southwest. Thus an upslope flow along the foothills of Alberta into the Rockies will develop. Temperatures are cool enough for snow at treeline and in the alpine, with the precipitation abating in the mid- to late afternoon. Gusty winds are likely today on the back side of the storm. Showery weather will follow on Saturday as we remain under the influence of the upper level trough as it moves eastward.
Rain today with possible 5-10 mm of accumulation. Winds will be steady and gust up to 50 km/h. Temperatures will stay cool today but hover about the freezing mark so that precipitation will remain in the liquid form.
Conditions will remain cool at Fortress Mountain today and remain below the freezing mark today in periods of snow perhaps mixed with rain. Precipitation will continue throughout the day and diminish in intensity by mid-afternoon. Residual snow showers are likely thereafter and overnight as temperatures remain cool. Note that ECCC is continuing its snowfall warning for the region with highest snow accumulations likely in the norther sections of Banff National Park, with possibly up to 10 cm of snow.
Storm Mountain Lodge
Light to moderate snow will continue at Storm Mountain Lodge this morning where temperatures remain near freezing. Snow will continue until early afternoon before diminishing. Maximum today will reach about 0C.
Forecaster : Cécile Carton
A low pressure system associated to upper level lows over our area. The CAPE remains very low for the three sites.
FORECASTERS: Charlie Hébert-Pinard & Hilary Smith
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Low pressure over the Pacific ocean is moving east towards the coast of BC. Several upper level lows over Canada, some of which support that surface low pressure and will allow some showers over the study area. However, only a small amount of rain is expected for the night and we should be affected more considerably starting tomorrow evening. Despite NAM indication, we should not expect any thunderstorms in the next 24h, with a very low CAPE for the three sites.
FORECASTER: Juris Almonte
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A surface low over SE corner of NWT (1002 hPa) with a trough extending down into Montana. 24 h preliminary CaPA map is showing no precipitation till tomorrow morning. Upper trough off the coast of BC and is moving eastward to make its way to the SPADE region by Thursday bringing wet conditions.