May 09, 0130 UTC

Forcasters: Aurélie Dseroches-Lapointe & Jeremy Morris

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
Two surface low pressure systems are currently in vicinity of northwestern Canada, the first one being on the west shore of Hudson Bay, and the second over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of northen BC. A high pressure is also located south of the BC coast. No surface synoptic system is currently located in our area, so any precipitation occurring would be of orographic nature. This surface pattern seems to persist for the next few days, however higher levels patterns are moving across the continent.

Two troughs, at 500 hPa and  250hPa heights respectively, are currently over our study area, moving northeastwards and becoming more negatively tilted which correspond to the SE-NW direction. Additionally, high-level ridges (500 and 250 hPa respectively) are currently above the surface high pressure zone located over the Pacific Ocean  that was mentionned before. These ridges are building up as they approach us in the next few days.

NIPIKA: 
According to GEM25, a mixt of 0.9mm of rain and 0.4mm of snow is forecasted for tonight. Otherwise, significant precipitation is forecasted for Thurday afternoon into Friday just as for Fortress site.

GEM2.5 suggest rain for Monday early morning reaching a rate of 0.9 mm/h but GEM10  which has a more recent lasts simulation suggests only negligible amounts of precip. HRRR and Rap forecast no precipitation. NAM suggest traces amount for tomorrow early morning and two small showers of rain from 3pm to 5pm MDT.

FORTRESS:
None of the models suggest precip for at least nthe next three days. According to GEM25 no considerable amount of precip is expected until Thursday June 14th, when a important rain event is forecasted. This event should bring precip from Thursday, but mainly on Friday.