June 1 - 0300 UTC

FORECASTER: Juris Almonte 
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: Much like the morning, the upper ridge at 500 hPa is still affecting western Canada, a low pressure system is situated off Alaska. Atmospheric river forecasts are showing IVT values over  the 250 kg m-1 s-1 threshold by June 2nd and 3rd and then again on the 5th. Upper air charts are from 1200 UTC, as 0000 UTC charts were not available.

​Of interest next week, high amounts of precipitation are expected on the 5th according to the GEM 2.5. This may be associated with the long range atmospheric river forecast whereby, moisture is advected over to the Rockies from the Pacific. 

NIPIKA
GEM 2.5 (1800 UTC) shows small (1.5 mm) precipitation over Nipika. Radar has shown spotty convection on the western side of the divide. Tomorrow is similar, with 1.8 mm expected late afternoon when max. temperatures are reached. 

The American models, with the newest model run suggests little action tomorrow, HRRR (0000 UTC), RAP (0100 UTC).  Even NAM earlier today (1800 UTC) shows no precipitation. 

FORTRESS
GEM 2.5 (1800 UTC) shows precipitation over Fortress for the rest of the evening with 6.7 mm of rain till midnight (MDT). However, looking at the radar it looks like strongest cells occurred just to the south of Fortress.

Tomorrow is similar, with 5.8 mm simulated mid afternoon, when CAPE value reaches a max  ~1100 J/kg, though shear is not as high.

Again, with the American models, and the most recent model runs almost no precipitation is shown tomorrow. 

​Storm Lodge
According to the GEM 2.5 (1800 UTC) no precipitation is expected. 
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