June 14 - 0130 UTC

FORECASTER: Hilary Smith

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
There is a low pressure system located over the BC interior and moving into Alberta, as well as a cold front moving into the SPADE region from the NW. According to ECCC weather briefings, there will be unsettled conditions after the passage of the cold front through the region. With the cold front moving in AB, there is a chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. There is also still a chance of thunderstorms in the BC interior. 

NIPIKA
The GEM 2.5 km (1800 UTC) model run is showing 2.2 mm of liquid precipitation between 1000 UTC and 1200 UTC tomorrow morning with temperature highs in the low-twenties. CAPE values will be <1000 J/kg, with northwesterly winds. The HRRR (2300 UTC) model run is showing 1.6 mm of liquid precipitation between 0800 UTC and 1000 UTC and the RAP (2300 UTC) model run is showing 0.4 mm of liquid precipitation at 0500 UTC. CAPE values are <1000 J/kg in both models. The GEM 25 km (1200 UTC) model run is showing trace amounts of precipitation tomorrow afternoon.

STORM LODGE
The GEM 2.5 km (1800 UTC) model run is showing 1.6 mm of liquid precipitation between 0800 UTC and 1000 UTC tomorrow morning and trace amounts of liquid precipitation in the afternoon with temperature highs in the mid-teens. CAPE values will be <1000 J/kg, with northwesterly winds. The HRRR (2300 UTC) model run is showing no precipitation tomorrow and the RAP (2300 UTC) model run is showing 0.8 mm of liquid precipitation at 0500 UTC. CAPE values are <1000 J/kg in both models. The GEM 25 km (1200 UTC) model run is showing 8.8 mm of precipitation throughout the day tomorrow ending at 2100 UTC. 

FORTRESS
The GEM 2.5 km (1800 UTC) model run is showing 7.9 mm of liquid precipitation between 1000 UTC June 14 and 0000 UTC June 15, with a small break between 1200 UTC and 1500 UTC, and temperature highs in the low-teens. CAPE values will be <1000 J/kg, with predominantly northerly winds. The HRRR (2300 UTC) model run is showing 1.2 mm of liquid precipitation between 0800 UTC and 1100 UTC and the RAP (2300 UTC) model run is showing 1.9 mm of liquid precipitation at 0o00 UTC June 14 to 0700 UTC. CAPE values are near zero in both models. The GEM 25 km (1200 UTC) model run is showing 8.2 mm of liquid precipitation until 0000 UTC June 15.